# Publications

In this paper we study the problem of statistical inference on the parameters of the semiparametric variance-mean mixtures. This class of mixtures has recently become rather popular in statistical and financial modelling. We design a semiparametric estimation procedure that first estimates the mean of the underlying normal distribution and then recovers nonparametrically the density of the corresponding mixing distribution. We illustrate the performance of our procedure on simulated and real data.

Following a series of works on capital growth investment, we analyse log-optimal portfolios where the return evaluation includes ‘weights’ of different outcomes. The results are twofold: (A) under certain conditions, the logarithmic growth rate leads to a supermartingale, and (B) the optimal (martingale) investment strategy is a proportional betting. We focus on properties of the optimal portfolios and discuss a number of simple examples extending the well-known Kelly betting scheme. An important restriction is that the investment does not exceed the current capital value and allows the trader to cover the worst possible losses. The paper covers a class of discrete-time models. A continuous-time extension will be a topic of a forthcoming study

In this work, we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures.

This note states several results on the exponential functionals of the Brownian motion and their approximations by Markov chains. Starting from M.Yor, such functionals were studied in mathematical finance. At the same time, they play a significant role in different settings: the analysis of diffusions on the class of solvable Lie groups, in particular on the group of (2 X 2) upper triangular matrices, with positive diagonal elements. The discrete random walks cannot properly describe the local structure of diffusion. However, instead of the usual local limit theorem (which is not applicable) its weaker form, namely quasi-local form is given.

A random flight on a plane with non-isotropic displacements at the moments of direction changes is considered. In the case of exponentially distributed flight lengths a Gaussian limit theorem is proved for the position of a particle in the scheme of series when jump lengths and non-isotropic displacements tend to zero. If the flight lengths have a folded Cauchy distribution the limiting distribution of the particle position is a convolution of the circular bivariate Cauchy distribution with a Gaussian law.

We introduce a longevity feature to the classical optimal dividend problem by adding a constraint on the time of ruin of the firm. We extend the results in [HJ15], now in context of one-sided Lévy risk models. We consider de Finetti's problem in both scenarios with and without fix transaction costs, e.g. taxes. We also study the constrained analog to the so called Dual model. To characterize the solution to the aforementioned models we introduce the dual problem and show that the complementary slackness conditions are satisfied and therefore there is no duality gap. As a consequence the optimal value function can be obtained as the pointwise infimum of auxiliary value functions indexed by Lagrange multipliers. Finally, we illustrate our findings with a series of numerical examples.

For a probability distribution P on an at most countable alphabet A, this article gives finite sample bounds for the expected occupancy counts EKn,r and probabilities EMn,r. Both upper and lower bounds are given in terms of the counting function ν of P. Special attention is given to the case where ν is bounded by a regularly varying function. In this case, it is shown that our general results lead to an optimal-rate control of the expected occupancy counts and probabilities with explicit constants. Our results are also put in perspective with Turing’s formula and recent concentration bounds to deduce bounds in probability. At the end of the paper, we discuss an extension of the occupancy problem to arbitrary distributions in a metric space.

The paper considers a family of probability distributions depending on a pa- rameter. The goal is to derive the generalized versions of Cram´er-Rao and Bhattacharyya inequalities for the weighted covariance matrix and of the Kullback inequality for the weighted Kullback distance, which are important objects themselves [9, 23, 28]. The asymp- totic forms of these inequalities for a particular family of probability distributions and for a particular class of continuous weight functions are given.

In this work we derive an inversion formula for the Laplace transform of a density observed on a curve in the complex domain, which generalizes the well known Post– Widder formula. We establish convergence of our inversion method and derive the corresponding convergence rates for the case of a Laplace transform of a smooth density. As an application we consider the problem of statistical inference for variance-mean mixture models. We construct a nonparametric estimator for the mixing density based on the generalized Post–Widder formula, derive bounds for its root mean square error and give a brief numerical example.

Existence, regularity and uniqueness of the solution to a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation were studied recently in [H. A. Moreno-Franco, Appl. Math. Opt. 2016], when the Lévy measure associated with the integral part of the elliptic integro-differential operator, is finite. Here we extend the results obtained in this paper, in the case that the Lévy measure associated with this operator has bounded variation. The HJB equation studied in this work arises in singular stochastic control problems where the state process is a jump-diffusion. For a particular case, by means of ε-penalized controls we show that the value function associated to this class of problems agrees with the solution to our HJB equation.

In this paper we provide a systematic exposition of basic properties of integrated distribution and quantile functions. We define these transforms in such a way that they characterize any probability distribution on the real line and are Fenchel conjugates of each other.We show that uniform integrability, weak convergence and tightness admit a convenient characterization in terms of integrated quantile functions. As an application we demonstrate how some basic results of the theory of comparison of binary statistical experiments can be deduced using integrated quantile functions. Finally, we extend the area of application of the Chacon–Walsh construction in the Skorokhod embedding problem.

In this paper, we study the fluctuations of sums of random variables with distribution defined as a mixture of light-tail and truncated heavy-tail distributions. We focus on the case when both the mixing coefficient and the truncation level depend on the number of summands. The aim of this research is to characterize the limiting distributions of the sums due to various relations between these parameters.

In this paper we study the problem of statistical inference for a continuous-time moving average L\'evy process of the form

\[ Z_{t}=\int_{\R}\mathcal{K}(t-s)\, dL_{s},\quad t\in\mathbb{R}, \] with a deterministic kernel \(\K\) and a L{\'e}vy process \(L\). Especially the estimation of the L\'evy measure \(\nu\) of $L$ from low-frequency observations of the process $Z$ is considered. We construct a consistent estimator, derive its convergence rates and illustrate its performance by a numerical example. On the mathematical level, we establish some new results on exponential mixing for continuous-time moving average L\'evy processes.Many human infections with viruses such as human immunodeciency virus type 1 (HIV{1) are characterized by low numbers of founder viruses for which the random effects and discrete nature of populations have a strong effect on the dynamics, e.g., extinction versus spread. It remains to be established whether HIV transmission is a stochastic process on the whole. In this study, we consider the simplest (so-called, 'consensus') virus dynamics model and develop a computational methodology for building an equivalent stochastic model based on Markov Chain accounting for random interactions between the components. The model is used to study the evolution of the probability densities for the virus and target cell populations. It predicts the probability of infection spread as a function of the number of the transmitted viruses. A hybrid algorithm is suggested to compute efficiently the dynamics in state space domain characterized by a mix of small and large species densities.

This book brings together the latest findings in the area of stochastic analysis and statistics. The individual chapters cover a wide range of topics from limit theorems, Markov processes, nonparametric methods, acturial science, population dynamics, and many others. The volume is dedicated to Valentin Konakov, head of the International Laboratory of Stochastic Analysis and its Applications on the occasion of his 70th birthday. Contributions were prepared by the participants of the international conference of the international conference “Modern problems of stochastic analysis and statistics”, held at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow from May 29 - June 2, 2016. It offers a valuable reference resource for researchers and graduate students interested in modern stochastics.

Polynomial convergence rate to stationarity is shown for extended Erlang -- Sevastyanov's model.

Existence and uniqueness has been established for a mean-field version of the GI/GI/1 queueing model

In this work we study the optimal execution problem with multiplicative price impact in algorithm trading, when an agent holds an initial position of shares of a financial asset. The inter-selling-decision times are modelled by the arrival times of a Poisson process. The criterion to be optimised consists in maximising the expected net present value of gains of the agent, and it is proved that an optimal strategy has a barrier form, depending only on the number of shares left and the level of asset price.

We consider a sequence of general filtered statistical models with a finite-dimensional parameter. It is tacitly assumed that a proper rescaling of the parameter space is already done (so we deal with a local parameter) and also time rescaling is done if necessary. Our first and main purpose is to give sufficient conditions for the existence of certain uniform in time linear–quadratic approximations of log-likelihood ratio processes. Second, we prove general theorems establishing LAN, LAMN and LAQ properties for these models based on these linear–quadratic approximations. Our third purpose is to prove three theorems related to the necessity of the conditions in our main result. These theorems assert that these conditions are necessarily satisfied if (1) an approximation of a much more general form exists and a (necessary) condition of asymptotic negligibility of jumps of likelihood ratio processes holds, or (2) we have LAN property at every moment of time and the limiting models are continuous in time, or (3) we have LAN property, Hellinger processes are asymptotically degenerate at the terminal times, and the condition of asymptotic negligibility of jumps holds.